Former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll poll released exclusively to The Hill on Monday.
Almost six out of ten Republican voters polled (58 percent) indicated they would vote to put Trump back on the ballot in 2024, showing that the party is ready to give him another chance.
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No other Republican presidential candidate in 2024 even comes close to Trump’s popularity. Former Vice President Mike Pence receives a distant second-place vote of 13% from Republican voters, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a rising star, receives a third-place vote of 13%.
According to the latest poll results, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are tied for fourth place with 3% support each.
“While defeated politicians seldom come back,” Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll study, put it, “Trump has a large lead in the Republican primary, especially among the most dedicated Republicans.”
Trump has publicly and privately discussed the possibility of running for president in 2024 in the months since his departure from the White House in January.
However, in recent weeks, he has begun to show signs that he is more likely than not to run for re-election. He’s upped the frequency of media appearances and press statements he makes, and he’s planning rallies in Georgia and Iowa, the country’s first presidential caucus state.
Trump may decide not to run in the Republican presidential primary in 2024, which is still many years away.
Pence moved to the top of the poll among Republican voters when he was not included on the list of probable presidential contenders, with 32 percent support. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) passed both Haley and Rubio for third place.
However, in recent weeks, he has begun to show signs that he is more likely than not to run for re-election. He’s upped the frequency of media appearances and press statements he makes, and he’s planning rallies in Georgia and Iowa, the country’s first presidential caucus state.
Trump may decide not to run in the Republican presidential primary in 2024, which is still many years away.
Pence moved to the top of the poll among Republican voters when he was not included on the list of probable presidential contenders, with 32 percent support. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) passed both Haley and Rubio for third place.
Despite his substantial Republican backing, Trump remains to be a deeply controversial figure among the general public. While 48% of individuals who responded to the poll said they had a favorable impression of the former president, 47% said they had a bad opinion of him.
Even more worrying, Americans are split on whether he was a better president than Joe Biden, his successor. According to the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, 51% of those polled say Trump is the greater commander in chief, while 49% believe Biden is.
Penn believes that the fact that Trump is no longer in the White House and doesn’t have the same pubic support as he once did is a good thing.
“Facebook may have done Trump a favor since since he has been removed from daily social media traffic, his approval ratings have soared to an all-time high of 48 percent,” Penn added. “However, Trump’s controversial views make him today just as likely to collapse the Republican Party as to help it return.”
It was conducted in a poll conducted by Harvard CAPS and Harris Poll from September 15 to 16 among 1,578 registered voters, including 490 Republicans. According to the survey, the margin of error for the Republican sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted in collaboration with Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll on behalf of the University of Chicago.
The complete poll results will be accessible later this week on the internet. Respondents are selected at random from voter panel providers, and their responses are weighted to fit known demographic parameters. The outcomes of this representation are as follows:
